My 2021 NFL postseason and award predictions
The first Sunday of the NFL season kicks off in a few minutes, so here are my predictions for the playoffs, awards and Super Bowl matchup.
NFC Playoffs
Buccaneers
Rams
Packers
Washington
49ers
Seahawks
Cardinals
The Buccaneers should run the table in the NFC. All 22 starters and then some are back from last year’s Super Bowl team (?!), and the Tampa Bay offense gets a full offseason with Tom Brady. I think the Buccaneers should be even better than last year.
Matt Stafford’s arrival in LA has NFL fans hopping on the Rams bandwagon, and for understandable reason. Sean McVay is going to want to light the universe on fire with Stafford at the helm instead of Jared Goff, and I think Stafford could set a new career high for passing yards. While the defense lost a few key guys from last season, they’re still a top tier unit.
The Aaron Rodgers-Packers front office rift, I feel, is distorting people’s perception of how good the Packers still are. The offensive line is worse on paper than last year, but they still have the same offense from last year that was unprecedentedly incredible in the red zone last season.
Watching the Cowboys last Thursday made me slightly nervous about me picking the WFT to win the NFC East, but I’m still high on Ron Rivera and Co. Their elite defense should keep them in most games, and their offensive upgrades (especially Ryan Fitzpatrick) should pay major dividends after they were hamstrung by Alex Smith, Kyle Allen and Dwayne Haskins last season.
It wouldn’t shock me if the Niners won the NFC West; they almost made the playoffs last season despite being ravaged by COVID and injuries. Now, they’re far healthier with an elite defense and a stellar offense that could see a massive upgrade should Trey Lance become the starter. I’m not saying Jimmy Garoppolo is bad (the Niners went to a Super Bowl with him as the starter), but Lance’s ceiling is far higher than Jimmy G’s. I’m also excited to see Trey Sermon in this run-oriented offense.
The Seahawks should be the usual recent Seahawks this season: a really good offense, a mediocre defense, and a playoff team that will probably get bounced by the NFC Championship. I don’t mean to sound like such a pessimist; Russell Wilson is a man on a mission this season, DK Metcalf should only get better and Chris Carson is still underrated.
I debated between the Vikings, Cardinals and Saints for the NFC’s final playoff spot. Ultimately, I went with Minnesota. Mike Zimmer admitted that last year’s defense was the worst he’d ever coached, and they should be way better this year. I’m super excited for year two Justin Jefferson, another year of Dalvin Cook, and Kirk Cousins should remain a rock solid QB who's not going to put MInnesota on his back, but shouldn’t lose them any games, either.
NFC Championship: Buccaneers over Rams
I’m high on the Rams, but not high enough for me to pick them to make the Super Bowl, especially with the Buccaneers in the way. Tampa Bay goes back-to-back and gives Tom Brady a shot for his eighth (?!) Super Bowl ring.
AFC Playoffs
Chiefs
Browns
Bills
Titans
Patriots
Dolphins
Broncos
The Chiefs still have holes in their roster, but they’re still the AFC’s best team. Offensive line and pass rush upgrades (two of Kansas City’s most glaring needs heading into the 2021 offseason) should help Patrick Mahomes and Co. secure the AFC’s top seed once again.
I’m extremely high on the Browns this season. Their upgraded defense has me really excited, and while I still don’t believe in Baker Mayfield as a true franchise QB, a league-best offensive line along with a league best RB duo should carry the Browns to their first AFC North division title in franchise history.
I’ve seen the Bills being a popular Super Bowl pick, and seeing them hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February wouldn’t shock me one bit. I’m not that optimistic about them, but Josh Allen along with an upgraded defense should be enough for a second consecutive AFC East crown and a top three seed in the AFC.
I was debating between the Titans and Colts for the AFC South title, but I landed on the Titans because a) their offense is the best unit in the division, and b) I’m not liking the vibes in Indy at the present moment. The COVID and injury situation is not encouraging, and while I do think the Colts can absolutely make the playoffs, I’m gravitating towards the Titans because they’ve succeeded despite having a subpar defense.
The uncharacteristic (but effective) free agency spending spree combined with several key guys returning for New England has me inserting them into the AFC’s fifth seed. Mac Jones has looked really good, and the backfield of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Co. is going to be really good as well.
The Dolphins’ success mainly hinges on Tua and the offensive line, which looked better last season but still wasn’t great. The defense is great, and if Tua looks good, watch out.
I had five remaining contenders for the AFC’s final playoff spot: the Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Steelers and Ravens. I ultimately went with the Broncos because their defense is going to be really effin’ good this season, and Teddy Bridgewater raises the floor of this Denver offense. I’m also expecting a breakout year from Jerry Jeudy, and I believe Javonte Williams can quickly establish himself as a top 25 running back.
AFC Championship: Chiefs over Browns
I was oh so close to picking the Browns, but I simply couldn’t pick against Patrick Mahomes in favor of Baker Mayfield.
Super Bowl: Buccaneers over Chiefs
Call me boring. Call me a casual. I don’t care. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only current NFL roster without a true weakness. As long as health doesn’t become a major concern, I’ve got Tom Brady capturing his eighth Super Bowl victory.
Awards
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
This might be my pick every year from now until I’m out of college. Mahomes has a better offensive line protecting him and the same outstanding cast of skill players around him.
OPOY: Davante Adams
Adams is the best receiver in football and could easily lead the league in catches, yards and touchdowns, at which point it would be really difficult to hand the award to someone else.
DPOY: Chase Young
Young is the best player on what may be the league’s best front seven. He should absolutely improve upon his 7.5 sack total from 2020; it should also be of note that nine of the last ten DPOY award recipients were either defensive lineman or linebackers.
OROY: Kyle Pitts
Rookie tight ends usually struggle to quickly acclimate to the NFL, but I seriously think Kyle Pitts will be the exception. I’m buying the immense hype surrounding him, and in an Atlanta offense that’ll be doing plenty of passing (Matt Ryan lead the NFL in pass attempts in 2020), I believe Pitts is going to be a monster.
DROY: Patrick Surtain II
Sure, the Broncos passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones, but they also got a corner who has received only praise since he first donned orange and blue. This Broncos defense is going to be really good, and I think Surtain is going to have a big year.
Comeback POY: Christian McCaffrey
This one should be easy as long as McCaffrey puts up incredible numbers.
COTY: Bill Belichick
When the Patriots make the playoffs (not if), it will be a lot in part due to the coaching of Bill Belichick.
