Which Prospects Make the Most Sense for the Knicks at Eight?
Once again, the Knicks got screwed by the NBA Draft Lottery.
What else is new?
While this time around wasn’t as big of a blow to the franchise as 2019 was, the Knicks still had a better chance of drafting in the top three (27.6%) than drafting eighth (20%) in 2020. Of course, the Hornets and Bulls, each with lower lottery odds than the Knicks, leapfrogged into the top four, leaving the seemingly cursed New York franchise in the dust.
Despite the harsh realities of the NBA Draft Lottery for the Knicks, this situation isn’t as awful as I made it sound in the opening grafs. This is a weird draft class. There’s no real consensus number one pick. Scouting reports on prospects are all over the place. Read this blurb from Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman on how odd the draft might look this year:
“...based from some scouts' takes I've heard over the past few weeks, mock drafts could start looking silly right from the top. I've heard Avdija being ranked higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late-lottery pick. Jalen Smith over Okongwu. Okoro being compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the draft's top prospect. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and college scouts who ‘don't see it.’”
The last time the basketball world saw this level of uncertainty in the draft was in 2013. If you re-drafted this draft today, it would look almost unrecognizable from what actually happened. Looking back on it, here were the mishaps of that draft for those who don’t remember:
Anthony Bennett went first overall.
Ben McLemore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Trey Burke were picked back-to-back-to-back right before CJ McCollum.
Nerlens Noel and Alex Len were selected before Steven Adams
Lucas Noguierea was picked before Rudy Gobert.
Giannis Antetokounmpo went fifteenth overall.
The point is, this draft is going to be hectic. The fact that there was no NCAA Tournament, NBA Combine and other golden opportunities to scout players due to the coronavirus pandemic will make picking players significantly harder this year. An arguable top five pick could fall to the Knicks at eight due to conflicting scouting reports on the 2020 prospects.
Let’s break down which prospects (who will most likely be available at eight) make the most sense for the Knicks.
For the sake of this ranking, let’s eliminate the prospects who will most be selected by the eighth pick.
LaMelo Ball
Anthony Edwards
James Wiseman
Onyeka Okongwu
As you can see, this list is quite short. Those are the only four players that have consistently gone in the top seven in mock drafts around the Internet. Everything else is up in the air. Without further ado, let's get into the rankings.
Tier 1: Potential top-five prospects who could slip
Obi Toppin, F/C, Dayton
Toppin is probably the biggest victim of an NCAA Tournament-less 2020. Although his stock has risen since mid-March, he very well could’ve skyrocketed into the top three had there been an NCAA Tournament. Dayton was a projected one seed and looked like a national championship contender, and Toppin was the alpha dog leading the way all year. The Naismith Player of the Year
High flying dunks and Uber athleticism is what has NBA fans excited for Toppin. At 6’9, 220 pounds, Toppin is an explosive big man who can be the focal point of an offense. His offensive skills are one of the most polished in this year’s draft, as he showed off great shooting and passing potential last year. He runs the floor well and is a walking highlight reel in transition. Him and Mitchell Robinson could become one of the most electrifying frontcourt duos in the league.
However, there are several knocks on Toppin, mostly about his ceiling as a player. At 22 years old, Toppin is one of the oldest players in this draft. His refined skills have raised concerns about how much more he can develop in the pros.
Another knock on Toppin are his defensive skills. For a 4 or a 5, he’s undersized at 6’9. He was often overpowered by bigger players last season, most notably against Udoka Azubuike against Kansas in the Maui Jim Invitational last season. He’s not very quick laterally, and his IQ has been questioned by NBA scouts.
Toppin is probably the most bust-proof player in this class. He’s shown he can jump to the moon and can be an impact player offensively. Knicks fans would be happy if Toppin fell to the eighth pick.
Deni Avdija, F, Israel
Watching Avdija on Maccabi Tel Aviv, you can see why he won MVP in the Israeli League last season.
He’s extremely difficult to stop in transition. His speed from basket to basket is incredible for a 6’9 guy. Avdija’s offensive skills are also above average for his physical traits. He handles the ball well, and his passing skills are phenomenal. On defense, he takes pride in stopping the ball, and his length makes him a good shot blocker and a dangerous help defender deflecting balls in passing lanes.
Concerns around Avdija are centered around his jump shot and his physique. Avdija was an inconsistent three point shooter last year, shooting only 28% from beyond the arc. That needs to improve at the next level if he wants to fulfill his true potential.
His semi-skinny frame has also raised some questions among NBA scouts. At 6’9, 215 pounds, Avdija will get destroyed by bigger 4’s and 5’s on defense if he doesn’t add some muscle. He’ll also get pushed around on drives to the basket, something he liked to do on Maccabi Tel Aviv.
If Avdija falls to eight and is taken by the Knicks, that would be a slam dunk pick. He can replace Julius Randle as the point forward in New York, something Knicks fans would be all for after watching Randle try and be the first option far too many times last season.
Tier 1.5: The Killian Hayes Tier
Killian Hayes, PG, France
What an intriguing prospect.
Drafting a French prospect eighth overall is nothing new to Knicks fans, and they won’t talk about it with too much joy. At the moment, Frank Ntilikina looks like a failing experiment that was a mistake in 2018 and is still a mistake today.
Hayes has traits that could make him a top four pick, but also has downfalls that could have him slip to the late lottery. Again, conflicting scouting reports could cause Hayes to fall right into the Knicks’ lap.
At 6’5, 210 pounds, Hayes’ physique along with his innate offensive skills earned him comparisons to James Harden in the EuroLeague and D’Angelo Russell in the States. His passing touch and basketball IQ are off the charts, skills that are almost impossible to teach. He’s great at attacking the basket, as he uses his shoulders to lean into defenders and shield the ball on layups. Hayes also possesses a lethal step back jumper, which radiates James Harden vibes when you watch the southpaw size up a defender and let it fly from downtown. Despite his release point being low, Hayes’ tall frame allows him to shoot over defenders a lot more easily than most guards. Hayes also shot 91% from the free throw line last year. The Knicks shot a league-worst 69.4% from the line last year. In conclusion, Hayes would help the Knicks in several different areas of the game.
However, some parts of Hayes’ game are hard to ignore for the wrong reasons. When watching Hayes, you’ll notice immediately that he is left-handed. That’s because he uses his right hand only when absolutely necessary. He struggles using his off hand to dribble and pass, and he often makes layups and attacks to the basket tougher because of his inability to use his right hand while driving. If defenders force him right in an isolation situation in the NBA, his lack of right hand usage could become a major problem if he doesn’t work on that aspect of his game.
Hayes is also a bit of an inconsistent shooter. While he’s a fantastic shooter off the dribble, off the catch last season, Hayes shot...18% from three. Yikes.
Overall, Hayes has some unteachable skills that will serve him well in the league. He has the highest ceiling of any guard in this class, and Knicks nation would happily welcome the first potential consistent starting point guard since Jeremy Lin for about three months in 2012.
Tier 2: The Point Guards
Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Iowa State
Another player who could be gone by the sixth pick, Haliburton, like Hayes, could be off the board by the fifth or sixth pick. Other than LaMelo Ball, you can make an argument for the Iowa State product being the best point guard in this draft.
Before a season ending wrist injury, Haliburton was enjoying a stellar 2019-20 campaign, averaging 16-6-6 while shooting 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc. On a Knicks squad that finished in the bottom five in both two point and three point percentage last season, Haliburton would provide the Knicks a nice medley of a strong ball handler (Payton, Ntilikina, Smith Jr) with a quality shooter (Bullock, Ellington, Dotson).
Haliburton is a great decision maker, never really forcing passes or jump shots. He’s a very talented passer, and he keeps the ball moving on offense, something the Knicks struggled to do last season with Julius Randle handling the ball often. On defense, Haliburton’s length (6’8 wingspan) makes him dangerous in passing lanes and allows him to guard multiple positions, something New York’s guards last year couldn’t do.
The knocks on Haliburton mostly concern his jump shooting and his physique. Haliburton has a funky release on jump shots, and while it isn’t in the same realm as LaMelo Ball’s release, it still makes it difficult for Haliburton to shoot off the dribble and with a hand in his face. In terms of his body, Haliburton is only 175 pounds. He was constantly knocked around on drives to the basket in college and was overpowered on defense by bigger players. He’ll have to put on some weight if he wants to be able to assert himself in the lane once he gets to the NBA.
Haliburton, like Hayes, would most likely be the immediate starter in New York considering the current competition at point guard. He offered a high ceiling at Iowa State, and would be a refreshing sight to Knicks fans with his combination of ball handling and shooting.
Tyrese Maxey, PG, Kentucky
You might be asking yourself, Tyrese Maxey? Isn’t that a bit of a reach? Why not just take Cole Anthony instead?
Yes, no, and I’ll get to that in a bit. I don’t know why Maxey isn’t being linked to the Knicks as much as he should be.
At Kentucky, Maxey proved he was a certified bucket-getter. Even though his 14 PPG might tell you otherwise, on film, Maxey seemed to have an innate ability to score, whether it was by attacking the basket or pulling up from three. Despite being undersized at 6’2, Maxey plays like he’s 6’6, often using his 200 pound frame to assert himself driving to the basket and shaking off defenders to free himself up for a jump shot.
The Knicks also have several Kentucky connections, which could help Maxey’s case to be the eighth overall selection. Along with Kevin Knox and Julius Randle, the Knicks recently hired Kentucky assistant coach Kenny Payne to the same position on Tom Thibodeau’s staff. Payne also has great relationships with team president Leon Rose and senior VP William Wesley.
Some knocks on Maxey include his ball dominance and his defense. Last season, Maxey was one of the few true scorers on Kentucky, meaning he had to a) have the ball in his hands a bunch, and b) force shots at the end of the shot clock, which brought his shooting percentages way down (43% FG%, 29% 3PFG%). On defense, Maxey gives his all, but often gambles on steals and struggles to move his feet well.
Maxey would provide the Knicks a potentially lethal scorer who doesn’t turn the ball over often (2.2 TOPG). His defense might need some work, but overall, the Knicks would be thrilled to have an alpha dog scorer on their roster.
Cole Anthony, PG, North Carolina
Talk about a bucket getter. Cole Anthony might be the best tough shot maker in this draft class.
Averaging 18.5 PPG last year in 22 games, Anthony showed off scoring skills that would immediately help the Knicks, who have been starved for a number one option offensively since Kristaps Porzingis. His ability to hit shots with defenders in his face will greatly help him at the next level. He also proved he can score one-on-one consistently, which the Knicks struggled mightily with last year outside of some RJ Barrett moments. Anthony also plays with passion. On a crappy North Carolina team, he had games where he single-handedly willed them into close games and even wins. The Knicks have never really had that type of player that they can give the ball to in crunch time and let go to work.
The situation Anthony was in definitely impacted Anthony’s scouting reports. On a talent-scarce North Carolina squad last year, Anthony was forced to be the main source of offense every single game. This made for some forced shots and overdribbling, something that Anthony will get penalized for a lot more in the NBA. His pass selection isn’t too fantastic either, as he sometimes forced passes to teammates, which hiked up his turnovers (3.5 TOVPG).
Anthony can be an immediate impact player for the Knicks in his rookie year. He’s a proven scorer, and Knicks fans would be happy to have the New York native running the show.
Tier 3: The Dark Horse 2’s and 3’s
Isaac Okoro, G/F , Auburn
If there was a player in this draft that Tom Thibodeau would love to have, it’s Isaac Okoro.
In his lone year at Auburn, Okoro established himself as one of the best defenders in the SEC. Often matched up against the opposing team’s best player, Okoro often used his strong 6’6, 225 pound frame to impose his will on the ball handler. Unlike many of the other 2’s and 3’s in this draft, Okoro can guard all five positions well. His feet move naturally on defense, and he rarely ever got beat to the basket one-on-one. Julius Randle could only dream of being able to do that.
On offense, Okoro is a skilled finisher. He has a nice touch around the basket, and his finishing skills can be improved even more under the guidance of RJ Barrett. Okoro also has a high motor, always giving 100% on every possession, which is a trait that would serve him well in Tom Thibodeau’s system.
Okoro’s weaknesses mainly concern his offensive skills. His jump shot mechanics often looked discombobulated, and his shooting percentages reflected that (29% 3PFG%, 67% FT%). His shot creating skills are very below average, and when he wasn’t able to get to the basket at Auburn, he looked lost and couldn’t create more opportunities for himself. The Knicks have lacked a player who’s great at both ends of the floor for a long time, and while Okoro is a great defender, his offensive game is what might cause teams to pass up on him come draft night.
With Tom Thibodeau as head coach, Okoro will definitely be considered by the Knicks brass at the eighth overall pick for his defense and effort. And if there’s one thing Knicks fans appreciate, it's playing hard and with passion. Okoro would certainly be welcomed in the Big Apple.
Devin Vassell, G/F, Florida State
In the hours after the NBA Draft Lottery concluded, I was scouring the Internet for the latest mock drafts. In several of them, Devin Vassell was the predicted pick. The only reason I knew who he was is because he killed my beloved Miami Hurricanes last season with some clutch shots to help lift Florida States to two wins against Miami. So, naturally, some research had to be done.
Vassell´s offensive play style is very similar to that of Brandon Ingram. They´re both long, lanky forwards who have crafty offensive tools and a nice touch around the basket. Vassell was also a great three point shooter during his two years in Tallahassee (41.7% career 3PFG%). His high release point combined with his ability to get open off-ball made Vassell a three point threat at all times.
On defense, Vassell used his 6’10 wingspan well to block shots and deflect passes. He moves his feet well, and has an above average defensive IQ, always seeming to know when and where to rotate. The Knicks struggled mightily last year at rotating on defense, often giving up wide open three pointers due to missed assignments or lack of communication.
While Vassell dramatically improved his ball handling skills from freshman to sophomore year at FSU, he’s still a bit hesitant trying to create scoring opportunities for himself. The core of Vassell’s offensive game centered around spot up shooting and straight drives to the basket. If he wants to be a consistent offensive threat on the ball, Vassell will have to keep improving his ball handling. Vassell’s physique has also been a point of concern throughout his college career. At 6’7, being only 194 pounds made him a liability to finish through contact on offense and guard bigger wings and forwards on defense. If Vassell can put on some extra weight, that would help him greatly on both the offensive and defensive end.
Vassell has a solid foundation for success in the NBA. A three-and-D guy is someone the Knicks could use given the current roster.
The Knicks have a lot to choose from at the eighth overall selection. Whoever they decide to take will have high expectations in the Big Apple, but will have a supportive fan base behind him and players around him that he can learn from.
