Fantasy Football Like/Don’t Like: QB’s
Folks, it’s officially fantasy football season.
Beginning with this article, I’ll be counting down four players I like and four players I don’t like from each fantasy position group.
I should also make one thing clear: Just because I say I like someone doesn’t mean I would draft them over someone that is clearly better than them. For example, I’m about to elaborate on why I like Russell Wilson; that doesn’t mean that I would draft Russ over Patrick Mahomes. Same idea with someone I don’t like; if they’re ADP is 63 and they’re still available at pick 125, I’m probably going to take them.
Let’s get started with the gunslingers.
Quarterbacks I Like
Russell Wilson
The second half of Wilson’s season probably still lingers in fantasy managers’ mind, and that’s understandable. Let’s compare weeks 1-9 and 10-16 for Wilson:
Weeks 1-9
FPTS/G: 28.5
30+ point games: 3
25+ point games: 5
<20+ point games: 0
Weeks 10-16
FPTS/G: 16.4
30+ point games: 0
25+ point games: 0
<20+ point games: 6
Yikes. Although he still finished as a top seven QB in 2020, Wilson’s second half of the season was one to forget. For a guy that was drafted as a top five QB AND for a guy as usually reliable as Wilson, weeks 10-16 last year were extremely infuriating for fantasy managers.
However, Wilson’s disappointing final eight weeks (plus a playoff stinker against the Rams) should be put in the rear view mirror. Russ is still as reliable as they come in fantasy, as he’s finished as a top 12 fantasy QB every season he’s played, including four top four finishes. Wilson has yet to miss a game in nine seasons, as the amount of time and money he spends taking care of his body has paid off tremendously. Last season, he set season high marks in passing yards (4212), completion percentage (68.8) and passing touchdowns (40). DK Metcalf is already a top ten receiver and should only get improve this season, and while Tyler Lockett isn’t as consistent as fantasy managers may like him to be, he’s still a top 25 receiver who has the potential to explode at least a few times a season, which he did last season (two 100+ yard, three TD performances, including a 15 catch, 200 yard and three TD performance against the Cardinals in Week 6). The Seahawks defense is also subpar, which is good for Wilson’s fantasy stock because that means he’ll have to throw the ball more, which was the case in the first half of the season as the Seahawks constantly found themselves in high-scoring shootouts (seven games of 30+ points in weeks 1–9).
If you don’t have a starting QB, you’re on the clock and Russ is the best QB available, don’t let last season’s end deter you from scooping up Wilson. He’s an Uber-reliable fantasy option (which there aren’t many of) and will set you up for success more weeks than not.
Ryan Tannehill
Efficiency. Efficiency. Efficiency. That is what you’re going to get from Ryan Tannehill on a consistent basis. In his two seasons with the Titans, Tannehill has thrown 55 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. Although he’s not a high-volume passer like Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes, he doesn’t need to be; despite being 18th in pass attempts last season, he still finished as QB8 and top seven in passing touchdowns (34).
His supporting cast is also one of the best in the NFL. Tennessee essentially replaced Corey Davis with Julio Jones, and while it cost them a few draft picks, it’s Julio freakin’ Jones! Yes, he battled injuries last season, but he played in all but four regular season games from 2014-2019; when healthy, he’s still one of the best and most dominant receivers in the game.
Opposite of him is another top ten receiver and arguably the next Julio Jones, AJ Brown. Add in one of the most unstoppable forces in football out of the backfield in Derrick Henry, and the Titans have arguably the best threesome of skill players in the NFL. Couple that with the return of Taylor Lewan and the addition of Dillon Radunz in the draft, and on paper, Tannehill is looking at the best offense he’s ever quarterbacked.
As for his fantasy outlook, I think Tannehill will be a steady low-end QB1 this season, but you should definitely draft a solid backup QB behind him, as Tannehill won’t single-handedly win you fantasy weeks like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes can. Tannehill has a fairly sturdy floor, and his ceiling fairly high as long as Jones, Brown and the offensive line all stay healthy.
Matthew Stafford
Seeing a great player in any team sport who has spent their entire career on a bad team go to a contender always makes me happy. Giancarlo Stanton going from the Marlins to the Yankees in 2017; Anthony Davis going from the Pelicans to the Lakers in 2019; and now Stafford going from the Lions to the Rams this past offseason.
Simply thinking about Matthew Stafford in Sean McVay’s offense gets me very excited. Sean McVay is going to have an absolute blast with all the plays he can run with Stafford being able to do more in and out of the pocket than Jared Goff could. No more of the constant play action rollout dump-offs to the right; look out for a lot more downfield shots with Stafford at the helm.
This is easily going to be Stafford’s best shot at a Super Bowl, as the Rams sport a far better roster than the currently rebuilding and kneecap-biting Lions. His supporting cast includes Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (who is 6’2” by the way; I just found that out, like, a few days ago. I always thought he was something like 5’10”. Huh.) Tyler Higbee, Desean Jackson and a sturdy offensive line that returns all five starters from last season should only help Stafford succeed.
In terms of fantasy production, Stafford has always been at least QB15 in the years where he’s started all 16 games, which has been all but one since 2011. While he had the likes of Calvin Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr and Golden Tate at his disposal in Detroit, this Rams offense will be the best he’ll have ever played with.
I guess a downside of Stafford on the Rams is the likely loss of garbage time points Stafford was able to rack up in Detroit. If you’ve been at least sort of paying attention to the NFL over the past decade, the Lions were (and still are) not great. More losing = more throwing the ball = (usually) more fantasy points. The Rams are a much better football team than the Lions right now, which means that, at the end of games, instead of chucking the ball every play in the pursuit of quick scores, Stafford will most likely be handing the ball off to Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson instead.
Regardless of that, I’m going to say that this will be Stafford’s best statistical season of his career. I’m projecting high-end QB2/low-end QB1 numbers from Stafford. He’s got a coach who will unleash him and a supporting cast suitable for success. I’m really excited to see Stafford in a Rams uniform this coming fall.
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is different; it’s no fluke he is being talked about as a generational QB and was getting Andrew Luck comparisons. If you were creating your ideal QB in Madden, you’d probably end up making something close to Lawrence. He’s got quite the toolbox: arm strength, accuracy, football smarts, leadership, and while he doesn’t have Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray-level mobility, he can escape the pocket when it collapses and pick up yards on the ground. He’s essentially everything you want in a quarterback. I think that’s a pretty good start.
As for his supporting cast, while it’s not as star-studded and dominant as Clemson’s was, it’s still really good. DJ Chark Jr is a WR1 waiting to happen, and Marvin Jones Jr has proven he can be a fantastic WR2 (and even a decent WR1) option; he’s caught nine touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. Lawrence will certainly have options in the red zone. Laviska Shenault Jr has received loads of praise during OTA’s, and 2020 waiver wire star James Robinson and college teammate Travis Etienne should provide solid receiving options out of the backfield (or, for Etienne, out of the receiver spot, depending on what the heck Urban Meyer decides to do with him).
Lastly, Lawrence will lose more games in his first four months in the NFL than he has his entire life (probably). I liked Jacksonville’s offseason additions (Shaquill Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, Marvin Jones Jr, and honestly, their whole draft class), and I think they can crack seven wins, but their defense is still bad, which is great for Lawrence and Jacksonville’s receivers. As I said earlier with Stafford, as a QB, the worse your team is, the more you’ll be throwing the ball. With the Falcons, Jets, Seahawks, Texans (2x) and Titans (2x), we very well might see a lot of shootouts from Jacksonville games this season.
I think Lawrence will finish somewhere in the QB2 range, but I’d be completely fine drafting him as my starter in a 12 team league. He’s that good. I really, really like Lawrence, and I’m excited that he’s (probably) going to make the Jaguars watchable for the first time since peak Sacksonville.
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow is a phenomenal QB. We all know that (I hope). The Bengals also sport a dangerous WR trio of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and now college teammate and future superstar Ja’Marr Chase, whom Burrow connected with for 19 touchdowns at LSU in 2019.
But Joe Burrow is coming off one of the nastiest injuries I’ve ever witnessed live on television, and reports from Bengals training camp (including Burrow himself) are saying that he hasn't looked or felt like himself as he tries to recover from a torn ACL and MCL. Those words are obviously not encouraging, especially when Burrow admits himself he’s still trying to regain his football abilities.
A few things here. One, it’s important to note when Burrow got injured last season (Week 10 a.k.a November 22) and the timetable for recovery (9--12 months). Considering that Burrow still doesn’t feel like himself right now in August, I wouldn’t imagine the Bengals are going to rush him back into action because a) Burrow is young and the franchise QB, and b) the Bengals probably won’t win a ton of games this season. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Burrow missed at least a few weeks at the beginning of the season.
As for Burrow’s fantasy outlook, I’m not liking it at the moment. Burrow’s limited mobility will lower his ceiling. His increased nervousness with the ball in his hands won’t be good either. While the Bengals offensive line added a few bodies and should improve from last season, the unit that was the root cause of Burrow’s injury is still subpar.
Watching Alex Smith play last year was terrifying; although watching Burrow won’t reach Smith’s level of viewer nervousness, I feel like I’ll be hoping more that Burrow doesn’t get hurt than him producing fantasy points. It’s not like Burrow was going to be a top five QB, as he should be your backup at most, but Burrow’s injury combined with Cincy’s offensive line woes have me backing off Burrow in 2021.
Matt Ryan
Here’s how Ryan ended up on my fantasy team last season: It was the sixth round, I didn’t have a starting QB yet. The guy picking right before me (who already had Patrick Mahomes) is on the clock, and Russell Wilson is still on the board. My squad of Christian McCaffrey, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson, Todd Gurley and DeVante Parker was about to look even better with Russ.
The guy picks Wilson.
I sit there, fuming. Why? Just, WHY???? I settle for Mark Ingram. I eventually have to get a starting QB, so in the eighth round, I grab Matty Ice. I was pissed for the rest of that draft. Some people want to watch the world burn.
Transitioning from angry draft day story to Matt Ryan. Having Matt Ryan in 2020 was…frustrating. There were some weeks where he’d look like his old MVP self, like Week 6 against the Vikings, where he threw for 371 yards and 4 TD’s with no INT’s en route to 31.6 fantasy points. Then, there were other weeks such as Week 11 against the Saints where he’d sink your team; Ryan went 19/37 with two INT’s and no TD’s, putting up a 5.3 point stinker.
It was a roller coaster of a fantasy season for Ryan, who turned in three 27+ point performances but seven sub-15 point performances. It was clear in some games that Ryan was declining, as his lack of mobility and seemingly decreasing arm strength hurt his fantasy numbers.
The loss of Julio Jones certainly won’t help either. Kyle Pitts was a fantastic addition and someone I think could put up Julio-esque numbers in the future, Calvin Ridley is a rising star and Mike Davis is a stellar receiving back, but it’s going to be very difficult for the Falcons to replace Julio’s presence and production.
Ryan is still a solid QB2, but I foresee a decline in numbers from last season unless a) Ryan can still muster up arm strength, b) Ridley and Pitts look like beasts, and c) the Falcons young offensive line improves and gives Ryan more time to throw.
Jalen Hurts
While he showed flashes in four starts last season, there are several red flags here with Hurts. Let’s make a list so we can be organized:
Red Flag #1: Hurts’ still-developing throwing skills
Hurts found most of his success last season on the ground, which is what made him such a hot waiver wire pickup late in the season. His passing was a different story, though. Although Hurts had two games where he threw for over 330 yards, he also turned in three sub-175 yard passing performances, and his completion percentage in a game never finished higher than 57%. Again, he only had four starts last season, and these numbers should improve in 2021, but last season’s performances concerned me.
Red Flag #2: His supporting cast
Here were the Eagles’ top four receivers last season in receptions, reception yards and touchdowns, in order:
RECS
Greg Ward (53): T-69th in the league with Will Fuller and Chase Edmonds
Dallas Goedert (46)
Travis Fulgham (38)
Zach Ertz (36)
REC YDS
Travis Fulgham (539): 82nd in the league, behind JD McKissic (77th) and Gabriel Davis (76th)
Dallas Goedert (524)
Greg Ward (419)
Jalen Reagor (396)
TDS
Greg Ward (6): This was actually pretty good; tied with DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson
Travis Fulgham (4)
Dallas Goedert (3)
Richard Rodgers (2)
So yeah, it was a pretty bleak receiving season for Philly. The Eagles receiving corps did get better over the offseason, as they and the Cowboys conspired against the Giants to make sure DeVonta Smith went to Philly instead of East Rutherford. I made up the latter part of that sentence, but arguably the greatest receiver in college football history should give Hurts a legitimate WR1, something he didn’t have last season (sorry Jalen Reagor).
However, this receiving corps is still not good. They still have Dallas Goedert, but Zach Ertz was awful last season, and while I believe Jalen Reagor can improve, he didn’t show many flashes of promise last season. Greg Ward, the Eagles’ leading receiver last season, is a fine WR4, but certainly not a WR1, which is the role he was forced to play last season. Travis Fulgham caught fire at the end of the season, including a 13 catch, 152 yard one TD performance against Pittsburgh in Week 16, but like Ward, he’s a better ancillary receiving option than a primary one.
Red Flag #3: Offensive line question marks
When healthy, the Eagles sport one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Brandon Brooks, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson are all top lineman at their respective positions when 100% healthy. Second rounder Landon Dickerson should only make this line’s prospects better. But the injuries are hard to ignore.
Brooks missed all of last season with a torn Achilles. Andre Dillard missed all of last season with torn biceps. Dickerson accrued multiple major injuries at Florida State and Alabama, including a torn ACL in the SEC Championship in December.
It’s also something to note that Kelce and Johnson had down seasons last season. Kelce’s PFF grade was his lowest since his rookie year in 2011, and Johnson recorded a career low PFF grade (71.9). I know they can absolutely improve on those numbers, but last season definitely worried me.
If the offensive line can’t stay healthy/get better, Jalen Hurts will not have a fun time in the pocket. He’s a great runner, but his passing won’t improve much if he’s constantly under duress. Just ask Carson Wentz.
I will admit right here: Hurts is the guy in this like/don’t like series that I could be the most wrong about. He only played four games last season and displayed some serious potential to be the Eagles future QB. He gets a massive WR1 upgrade with DeVonta Smith (assuming he can stay healthy). Hurts’ running ability is extremely valuable in fantasy football where rushing yards and rushing touchdowns count for more points than passing yards and passing touchdowns. And statistical jumps happen from year one to year two; Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen are recent examples of QB’s significantly improving in year two. Maybe my Giants fandom is distorting my perception of Hurts, but for now, I’m not too high on him, especially considering that he’s being drafted as a top nine QB, which is a little too high for me. I’d rather have a higher floor guy with a better supporting cast like Tannehill or Tom Brady.
Kyle Trask
He’s a rookie backing up Tom Brady. Enough said. Don’t draft Kyle Trask.
This selection proves how much I don’t not like many QBs for fantasy purposes. All of the tier one players (Mahomes, Jallen, Lamar, Kyler, Russ, Rodgers, Herbert) I would love to have as my starting QB, along with Brady and Tannehill. Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Stafford and a few others are great backup selections, and after that are mostly real life backup QBs. Not a whole lot to not like with most of today’s QBs.
