Fantasy Football Like/Don’t Like: RB’s

Running backs I like

Christian McCaffrey

If whoever picking first in your fantasy league doesn’t pick CMC, feel free to clown them for the rest of the draft. Publicly shame them. Make them sit in a Waffle House for 24 hours. Force them to watch every Texans game this season. 

CMC is fantasy Jesus. Here are some stats:

In 2019…

• Had two games of less than 20 PPR points

• Had eight games of 30+ PPR points. Eight. That is not a typo

• Had 11 games with at least six receptions, including five with 10+

• Had only three games with fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage 

• Had more than 15 touches (rushing attempts and receptions) in every single game 

• He finished with 471.2 PPR points. The next closest skill player to him was Michael Thomas, who finished with 374.6. 

Really read that last stat. McCaffrey was nearly 100 points better than the next closest player, who also happened to be by far the most dominant receiver that season (the next closest receiver in PPR points to Thomas in 2019 was Chris Godwin with 276.1). The season prior, he finished with 385.5 PPR points, more than everyone except Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes. 

Although many fantasy owners (including myself) got burned by McCaffrey’s injuries last season, the three games he played further proved how much of a fantasy cheat code he is. After scoring 28.5 and 24.8 PPR points in weeks 1 and 2, he came back from injury in Week 9 to gift his probably sad fantasy managers a glorious 37.1 point performance against the Chiefs. 

This guy puts up quarterback numbers as a running back. You can book him for at least 18 PPR points every week. So please, for the love of God, if you have the first pick in your fantasy draft, don’t overthink it. Pick McCaffrey and enjoy. 

Mike Davis

Here’s why I want Mike Davis on my fantasy team in 2021 (and why you should want him too). 

After CMC went down last season, Davis was an excellent replacement for those who were lucky enough to scoop him up. He posted at least eight PPR points in every single game he played in, including two where McCaffrey started and six games of 15+ PPR points. Davis also had the fourth most receptions out of all running backs last season (59) and totaled over 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in 2020. 

Davis is also the clear-cut starter in Atlanta. Todd Gurley, Ito Smith and Brian Hill (who accounted for pretty much all of the Falcons’ running back carries) are all gone. The running backs behind Davis? Javian Hawkins, Qadree Ollison and Caleb Huntley. Davis will most likely be getting most (if not all) of the backfield touches this season. 

The Falcons will also most likely be losing more than winning in 2021, and because of that, will likely be throwing the ball more. While this isn’t good news for Davis at first thought, Davis is a solid receiving back; plus, Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts are there. Again, while this might not sound good for Davis at first thought, having multiple threats at the skill positions on offense is actually a good thing; just because there’s multiple weapons on an offense doesn’t mean one or more weapons will get a lesser piece of the pie. Look at the Cowboys (Zeke, Lamb, Cooper) , Titans (Henry, Brown and now Julio) and Seahawks (DK, Lockett, Carson). They all can rack up fantasy points despite being on the same offense. The more threats you have, the more defenses have to respect, which is (usually) advantageous to the offense. 

Finally, with Arthur Smith bringing his pound-the-rock mentality from Tennessee (where Derrick Henry has received 681 rushing attempts over the past two seasons) to Atlanta, I expect Davis to receive a healthy workload. Obviously, Mike Davis is no Derrick Henry, but Arthur Smith is still Arthur Smith. 

There. There is your very simple reasoning as to why you should want Mike Davis on your fantasy team in 2021. Davis is projected to be picked somewhere around the fifth round, and that’s great value for a rock solid RB2. 

The Mike Davis train is leaving the station soon. Hop on before it’s too late.

Latavius Murray

Just like in actual sports, your bench players matter. When bye weeks and injuries happen, you need to have solid backup options on your bench to at least somewhat suffice those points lost by your starters. Murray is the perfect bench piece.

Yes, Alvin Kamara, a top three fantasy running back, is ahead of him on the Saints RB depth chart, but Murray has still carved out a role in New Orleans that elevates him to the top tier of handcuff running backs. Here are his stats from the past two seasons:

2019

146 carries, 637 yards, 5 touchdowns 

34 receptions, 235 yards, 1 touchdown 

2020

146 carries, 656 yards, 4 touchdowns 

23 receptions, 176 yards, 1 touchdown 

For a backup to a guy that receives a high volume of touches in both the running and passing game, these numbers are very good. And should Kamara miss time (which he has), Murray’s fantasy value skyrockets. When Kamara missed weeks 7 and 8 with injury in 2019, Murray put up dazzling 32 and 36.7 point performances. 

It also helps that he runs behind a top five offensive line led by Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. Murray is one of the safest backup running backs out there, and should one of your starters go down, Murray will be a fine fill-in. 

Now, onto the bad.

Running backs I don’t like 

.Saquon Barkley

Let me get a few things straight before I start crying in the middle of writing this section: Saquon Barkley is my favorite NFL player in the whole world, and he’s one of the best running backs in football. Every time he gets the ball, I have a feeling he’s going to do something amazing. 

But there are a few things that worry me with Barkley. Like, really worry me. 

First, and most importantly, the offensive line. I do like what the Giants are doing in believing in their offensive line and allowing them to develop and gel without bringing anyone else in to compete with them through the draft or free agency. Andrew Thomas, Matt Peart and Shane Lemieux didn’t have any kind of normal offseason last season and clearly needed some time to figure things out, especially Thomas. 

But there’s no denying that this might be (and probably is) the worst offensive line in football. PFF ranked them 32nd in the league just a few weeks ago, and for understandable reasons. Although Thomas is entering only his second season and had a promising end to last season, he mostly underwhelmed, although he did have to block some pretty good defensive lines: The Giants schedule last season included the Steelers, Bears, 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers, Ravens, and Washington twice. He also showed signs of improvement towards the end of the season as well. 

Peart was OK, but not great. Lemieux didn’t see the field much. Will Hernandez hasn’t popped yet, and while Nick Gates brings energy and attitude to the line, he struggled last season playing center for the first time in his career. Nate Solder is set to return after opting out last season, but he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in New England in 2019. 

If the offensive line doesn’t take steps forward, this spells bad news for Barkley. Giants fans like myself and Barkley owners do not have fond memories of watching him get swarmed in the backfield on what felt like every play in 2019 and the two and half games he played in 2020. Although Barkley is the best miss-maker in the NFL, he couldn’t do anything when three opposing jerseys were in his face the second he received a handoff. The Giants offensive line simply couldn’t give Barkley any room to run. Here were some infuriating stat lines from the past two seasons:

2019 Week 3 vs Tampa Bay: 8 carries, 10 yards

2019 Week 9 vs Dallas: 14 carries, 28 yards

2019 Week 10 vs NY Jets: 13 carries, 1 yard

2020 Week 1 vs Pittsburgh: 15 carries, 6 yards

Secondly, Barkley is coming off of a torn ACL. Based on videos Barkley has posted on social media of him working out, he looks fine, but the injury will still be a concern. For a guy that cuts and jumps and stops on a dime as much as Barkley, he’ll be putting a lot of pressure on his knee ligaments, and one awkward cut could end his season once again. Also, if the offensive line can’t hold up once again, he’ll have defenders tackling him in every which way, which obviously increases the chances of injury. 

Barkley's talent is undeniable. If you give him even just a little bit of space, he can make a highlight. But if he can’t be protected, his fantasy value will go down as much as Barkley will be to the turf. 

Najee Harris

I could probably copy and paste my rationale for Barkley here with Harris. The rookie is an electrifying running back who has the potential to be great, but the offensive line he’ll be running behind will be, to put it nicely, suspect. 

Even last year, the Steelers’ rushing attack was atrocious, and that wasn’t because of James Conner or Benny Snell. Pittsburgh finished dead last in rushing yards/game (82.5), nearly ten yards behind the next worst team (Houston). The moment that encapsulated their running game in 2020 was Benny Snell getting stuffed at the one yard line not once, not twice, but three agonizingly agonizing times against Washington. The offensive line was one of the worst run blocking units in 2020 according to PFF. 

Flash forward to the present day, and the Steelers released their best lineman in David DeCastro, who will, in all likelihood, have his number retired in Pittsburgh and is a borderline Hall of Famer. Maurkice Pouncey, another Steeler lifer who will most likely end up in Canton, retired right after this past season. Everyone on that Pittsburgh o-line is either young and inexperienced or just hasn’t proved to be good yet. Here’s what the line looks like as of right now:

LT: Chukwuma Okorafor (never taken a snap at LT)

LG: Kevin Dotson (Four career starts)

C: Kendrick Green (third round rookie)/JC Hassenauer (four career NFL starts)

RG: Trai Turner (injury-prone and has fallen off recently)

RT: Zach Banner (85 career snaps at tackle)

This line is the polar opposite of what it’s been for the past decade: Strong, sturdy, reliable, and the gold standard for what an offensive line should be. The days of DeCastro, Pouncey, Alejandro Villanueva, Marcus Gilbert and Ramon Foster are over. 

So yeah, unless multiple guys on the o-line take massive steps forward, this unit is going to struggle, which is bad news for Harris. He’ll most likely be in for a rude awakening going from an all-time great Alabama offensive line to a Steelers unit that will probably finish in the bottom third in the league in run blocking. He’s absolutely going to receive a majority of the Steelers’ carries and should be an integral piece of this offense; if the offensive line is decent, I think Harris is going to be really good. Also, you don’t take a running back in the first round to not give him a lot of carries. However, if the line can’t hold up, it won’t matter how good of a running back Harris is. 

Raiders RB’s

I can say I don’t like an entire teams’ running backs, right? Yeah, screw it, I make the rules here.

My god, this might’ve been the most Raiders offseason ever. With pressing needs all across the defense and in the wide receiver corps, the Raiders pretty much gave away the entire right half of their offensive line and signed Kenyan Drake to a concerningly large contract considering that running back was, like, the one position the Raiders didn’t need. In the draft, they took Alex Leatherwood with the seventeenth overall pick. He’s a fine tackle, it’s just that I would’ve taken somewhere around five or six offensive tackles before Leatherwood. 

Josh Jacobs is a very good running back. But you don’t pay Kenyan Drake $14.5M just to not use him. Drake will most likely be utilized on passing downs, and while Jacobs has yet to show much promise as a pass catcher (didn’t have a game with more than four catches or 50 receiving yards in 2020), this still limits his upside as a really good RB2. And although Jacobs finished as RB8 in PPR formats last season, it sure didn’t feel like it; he only had five games where he scored over 15 PPR points, and those five games accounted for almost 56% of his fantasy production. 

Jacobs will still get a fairly heavy workload; he carried the ball 273 times last season, third most out of all running backs. However, Jacobs’ 3.9 Y/A was definitely on the lower end, and this stripped down Raiders offensive line certainly won’t help increase that number. I have a tough time seeing Jacobs finishing higher than a mid-RB2, but if you can get him at a lower price, go for it.